- Scotland’s Urban AGE 2022: Shocks to the System, outcomes of major research project into the future of Scotland’s largest cities led by Brian Evans, Professor of Urbanism at The Glasgow School of Art and Director of the Glasgow Urban Lab, published today.
- The commissioners of the report call for changes to tax raising and immigration powers, an overhaul of business rates and increased investment in connectivity
- The Glasgow School of Art supported Scotland’s Urban Age II with investment from Scottish Funding Council’s Covid mitigation funding for research
Policy changes are needed if Scotland’s largest cities are to succeed in the future, according to a new report Scotland’s Urban AGE 2022, Shocks to the System which was published today, Monday 23 May 2022.
A major academic study of the AGE cities, Aberdeen, Glasgow and Edinburgh, which has been led by Professor Brian Evans, (Head of Urbanism at the Glasgow School of Art, Head of the Glasgow Urban Lab, City Urbanist for Glasgow, and an advisor to the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe), has found that the Covid-19 pandemic, the climate crisis and Brexit have combined to create a potentially “toxic” cocktail of change for urban Scotland.
The research, was commissioned by Aberdeen, Glasgow and Edinburgh Chambers of Commerce Brodies LLP, Anderson Anderson & Brown and is a sequel to the AGEI report of 2018. It outlines what has changed (and what has not) in light of the Covid pandemic and the accelerating net zero carbon agenda. The commissioners are now calling on businesses and all levels of government to collaborate to make sure these cities can overcome the challenges they face in this period of rapid and profound change.
“Scotland needs the AGE city regions to be “at the top of their game” if it is to remain globally competitive,” says Professor Evans, who also recently authored the influential Regional Action Plan 2030 a Manifesto for Action across the 56 member states of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe. “Cities need to be dynamic, or they decline.”
“Despite accounting for just 22% of Scotland’s land mass, these city regions house 68% of the population and account for 73% of the country’s GVA.
“However, a consequence of this centripetal position is that these cities have also been hit hardest by the Covid-19 pandemic, which devastated high streets and accelerated societal change.
The report identifies five key challenges face the cities:
- City centres facing enormous transition: There is consensus around the fact that office requirements could fall by around 30%. If hybrid office working becomes the norm, the impact on footfall, the viability of businesses serving office workers, the office property market and the public transport system could be profound, especially if it is accompanied by long-term changes in shopping, entertainment and leisure.
- A built environment that requires retrofitting on an industrial scale: The built environment, which is believed to contribute around 40% of the UK’s carbon footprint, is a major barrier to reaching net zero targets and retrofitting on an industrial scale is required.
- An ageing population which will lead to workforce and tax revenue pressures: By 2030, a fifth of the population will be of retirement age. By 2050, that figure will surpass a quarter. This presents significant challenge around how citizens interact with their cities and also around the human capital required for them to function. This poses particular problems for Scotland as immigration is currently a reserved matter.
- Deteriorating domestic and international connectivity: A step-change in inter-urban connectivity and infrastructure is required including improving the speed of rail connections between the AGE cities.
- Planning and taxation systems straining with the pace of change: The pace of change in all market sectors – housing, offices, manufacturing, logistics, retail, leisure, hospitality and education – presents a significant challenge to the planning service, which at present is a hollowed-out version of its former self after years of cutbacks. Scotland’s non-domestic rate scheme also lacks flexibility, which may leave it ill-equipped to deal with the rapid change being thrust upon our cities.
To ensure the AGE cities can recover from recent shocks to the system and the report’s commissioning partners have made seven recommendations to policy makers
- Devolve meaningful tax raising and other fiscal powers to cities to allow them to fund investment and deliver programmes that reflects local needs and opportunities.
- A major focus on increasing the residential population of our city centres to replace the critical mass lost due to technological advances and other social changes.
- That the AGE cities form an alliance to work collectively to accelerate their journey to becoming net zero cities, mirroring the principles of the C40 cities. Retrofitting on an industrial scale will require taxation incentives.
- That immigration policy is devolved to ensure cities and regions have access to the workforce they need to prosper. Aligned to this, Scotland needs a Net Zero Jobs Strategy to ensure that we have the requisite skills and labour force to deliver on our climate pledges.
- We need significant investment in growing and upskilling our planning service to embed pace, place and partnership in all it does. It needs to respond quickly to the changing environment in our AGE cities, contain the strategic planning capacity to design better places, and also seek to work in a collegiate rather than combative fashion with those wishing to invest in our cities
- We need a new rates system fit for the century of the city. A new system should reflect changing property needs locally and incentivise new businesses to emerge and grow in our towns and cities. A new system must also recognise and account for the impact of technology on retail and the changing use of our city centre buildings.
- Significant and transformational investment in rail infrastructure is required to improve journey times between all three AGE cities and their extended regions. AGE city airports also urgently require route development funding to address lost connectivity.
Speaking on behalf of the three Chambers, Russell Borthwick, chief executive of Aberdeen & Grampian Chamber of Commerce said: “The updated report considers what has changed in light of the pandemic and the accelerating net zero carbon agenda, and also the many fundamentals which have not.
“It must be used to provide the launchpad to propel Scotland forward in the century of the city. And we ask Scotland’s policy makers to urgently work together with business communities to make the necessary interventions that will shape the next chapter for our AGE cities – and it must happen at pace.
“As agents of positive change, Chambers of Commerce and our project partners stand ready to play our part. Doing, not just talking.”
Elaine Farquharson-Black, partner and co-head of planning at Brodies, added: “The recommendations set out in the report come at a critical time for our cities and provide useful direction to encourage economic recovery at a time of unprecedented change.
A full copy of the report can be downloaded from:https://www.sua.agcc.co.uk
ENDS
Further information
Lesley Booth
07799414474
press@gsa.ac.uk
@GSofAMedia
Notes for Editors
- The world-leading research being undertaken at The Glasgow School of Art and by GSA academics was recognised in the recent REF21 exercise. 82% of GSA’s research was judged to be either world-leading or internationally excellent.
- The Urban Lab is a partnership between The Glasgow School of Art and Glasgow City Council.
- Scotland’s Urban AGE 2022: Shocks to the System is the sequel to work published in 2018, Scotland’s URBAN AGE I Aberdeen, Glasgow and Edinburgh in the century of the city (SUA-1), found that the AGE cities will be the key drivers of the economy, accounting for 80% of Scotland’s future economic growth. It recommended a series of strategic ideas, interventions and actions aimed at enabling the three cities to become leading players on the global stage concluding that “the available evidence shows that the AGE cities are the key drivers of the Scottish economy” and that “if they are performing well, the spin-off benefits to other towns, cities and rural areas are clear”.
- The new report is an update of SUA-1 and set out to consider what has changed (and what has not) in light of the pandemic and the accelerating net zero carbon agenda regarding the ability of our principal cities to deliver on their ambitions
Professor Brian Mark Evans PhD FRTPI FLI FCSD FAcSS FRGS AoU
Brian Mark Evans is Professor of Urbanism & Landscape at the Mackintosh School of Architecture, the Glasgow School of Art and Director of the Glasgow Urban Laboratory. He was formerly Artistic Professor of Urban Design & Planning at Chalmers University School of Architecture, Gothenburg.
In practice from 1990-2015, he was a partner with Gillespies LLP, an international design firm based in the UK where he led projects in 20 countries on 3 continents resulting in over 50 national and international awards for professional and design excellence.
From 2005 until 2010 he was Deputy Chair of Architecture & Design Scotland, the national agency responsible for architecture and the built environment in Scotland and before that was an Enabler with the UK Government Commission for Architecture and the Built Environment in London. He is a founding Director and Academician of the Academy of Urbanism, London, UK. In 2019, he was appointed City Urbanist for Glasgow.
Since 2015 he has worked in collaboration with the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe and UN-Habitat. He was lead writer for the Habitat III Regional Report on Housing and Urban Development for the UNECE Region: Towards a city-focused, people-centred and integrated approach to the New Urban Agenda.
He is a City Planner, Landscape Architect and Designer, extensively published author and practices, researches, teaches and speaks widely on the contemporary and future city, urbanism, urban design and landscape planning.
Co-authors:
John Lord: founding Director of yellow book Ltd, an Edinburgh-based consultancy specialising in economic development and regeneration. John is an associate of the Glasgow Urban Lab, a member of the Academy of Urbanism and a member of the Historic England Urban Panel.
Mark Robertson: Managing partner at Ryden LLP and a Fellow of the Royal Institution of Charterered Surveryors. He joined Ryden in 1993 after completing his PhD in Land Economics. Mark is Scotland’s leading real-estate analyst.